TAIWAN

TAIWAN

Introduction

1.         Developed  Economy.  Taiwan or the Republic of China is one of East Asia’s developed economy with a per capita  GNP ( Gross National Propduct) of $ 12,500.  It is the world’s 19th largest economy and 15th largest trading country.

2.         Political Revolution.  Taiwan has  gone through a political revolution since its break-up from the Chinese mainland in 1949.  The poliltical revolution in Taiwan culminated with the first ever Presidential elections held in 4,000 years of Chinese history.

3.         Who was also the incumbent President.  The next elections are due in March 2000.

4.         Renegade Province of China.  China regards Taiwan as a renegade province and in its view the elections were a ploy by Taiwan to declare independence.  Before the elections in 1996, China held war exercises in the Taiwan Straits to intimidate voters and the incumbent President, Mr.Lee Teng-hui.

5.         War of Words.  The latest war of words between Taiwan and China has once again sparked off tensions in the region with the danger of a possible military strike by China on Taiwan.

Background

6.         Formation of Taiwan.  Taiwan which calls itself the Republic of China was formed in 1949 when Mao Zedong’s Communist forces pushed Chiang Kai-shek’s regime of mainland China and drove it to Taiwan.

7.         Population of Taiwan.  Taiwan and its smaller islands are separated from the Chinese mainland by the Taiwan Strait, about 130km wide.  It has a population of 21 million, 85 per cent of whom are native-born and the rest are Chinese who fled from the mainland.

8.         International Recognition.  Taiwan did not have any contact with the mainland from 1949 to the late 1980s when a ban on trade and travel was lifted. Currently most countries recognise China as the mother country of Taiwan.  Only 29 countries recognise Taiwan while 160 countries recognise the Peoples Republic of China.

9.         KMT.  The Nationalist Party, or Koumintang (KMT), ruled China from 1911 to 1949, and Taiwan from 1949 to the present day.

10.       Martial Law.  The Nationalist Party (KMT) of Chiang Kai-shek ruled by martial law until 1987 when his son Chiang Ching-kuo, opened the political system, lifting martial law.

11.       Parliamentary Elections.  The current President Mr. Lee Tend-hui succeeded Mr.Ching-kuo in 1988 and continued the reform process, holding parliamentary elections in 1992.

12.       First Presidential Elections.  Direct Presidential elections were held for the first time on March 23, 1996, to complete the democratic process. Along with the President 13 National Assembly members were also elected.  The functions of the National Assembly members is limited to approving constitutional changes.

13.       War Games by China.  Before the 1996 Presidential elections in Taiwan, China carried our military exercises and unarmed missile tests in the Taiwan straits.  The missile tests showed the vulnerability of Taiwan to Chinese attacks.  This was seen as a warning  by China to discourage Taiwan from seeking independence.  China has emphasised that it will invade Taiwan if it seeks independence.

14.       Response from the US.  On March 22, 1996, the US Senate voted to defend Taiwan if China attacked the island.  The US moved two warships closer to Taiwan Straits.  The US also agreed to sell mobile stinger anti-aircraft missiles and other new defensive arms to Taiwan.

Sino-Taiwan Relations

15.       Taiwan’s Stand.

(a)       Contact with China on Equal Basis.

(i)        On July 9, 1999, Taiwan’s President, Mr.Lee Teng-hui in a controversial policy shift announced that talks between Taiwan’s nationalist government and China’s Communist government be conducted on a “special state-to-state” basis.

(ii)       Mr.Lee emphasised that because the exiled Republic of China or Taiwan was elected by and for the people of Taiwan and had nothing to do with the Chinese mainland, the only basis for contacts was between equals.

(iii)     It was also pointed out by Mr.Lee that bilateral contacts over the past decade had yielded some fruits but China’s refusal to accept the concept of divided rule  and its unyielding military threats against Taiwan had made fundamental improvements in relations impossible.

(b)       Reason’s for the shift in Taiwan’s Policy.

(i)        Domestic Compulsions.  Analysts feel that by harping on Taiwan’s sovereignty, President Lee wants to outmanoeuvre all his opponents in the next Presidential elections which are due in March 2000.

(ii)       Strain in Sino-US Relations.  President Lee is also aware of the current strain in  Sino-US relations and wants to take advantage of the situation.

(c)       Taiwan’s Constitution Unchanged.  On July 30, 1999, Taiwan’s Parliament, fearing China’s retaliation, refused to amend the Constitution to declare Taiwan an independent nation.  The ruling Nationalist party caucus refused to endorse the Opposition party’s proposal to write the President, Mr.Lee’s Statehood claims into the Constitution.

(d)       No Preconditions for Constructive Dialogue.

(i)        Taiwan refused  to accept any preconditions for the planned historic visit to the island by China’s top negotiator.  The planned trip was agreed in October 1998 by both sides in order to maintain dialogue toward improving relations, and neither side attached any precondition then.

(ii)       The Chinese President Mr.Jiang Zemin has emphasised that for the trip to go ahead, Taiwan’s President must withdraw his july assertion that China should regard Taiwan as a separate State.

(e)       Refutes Reunification.  In October 1999, Taiwan refuted Chinese President’s claim that Taiwan must be reunified with China before 2050.  It has proposed that China should set a timetable for its own democratisation.

(f)        Rejection of China’s Claim to Sovereignty over Taiwan.

(i)        In November 1999, Taiwan’s President, Mr.Lee Teng-hui again stirred up the issue of his country’s relations with China, urging the international community to accept the reality of Taiwan as a democratic state in its own right.

(ii)       Mr.Lee pointed out that it was a “fiction” to claim that the Chinese nation was not divided and rejected China’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan.

(iii)     Mr.Lee also stressed on the differences in political, economic and social structure between the mainland and Taiwan.  He also emphasised that relations could only improve if China dropped its threat of force to ultimately reunite China.

(g)       Call for US Missile Shield.  In August 1999 Taiwan’s Cabinet approved a draft report making clear it wants a missile defence system in order to cope with the missile threat from China.

16.       China’s Stand.

(a)       Reaction to President Lee’s Comments.

(i)        China has accused Taiwan’s President, Mr. Lee Teng-hui of taking a dangerous step towards splitting the country by advocating ‘state-to-state’ relations between China and Taiwan.

(ii)       It was also emphasised that Mr.Lee comments will have  an adverse impact on cross-straits relations and harm the process of reunification of China.

(iii)     China has not ruled out the use of   force to invade Taiwan if it declares independence.

(b)       Military Exercises. In August 1999 China upgraded the status of military exercises in Gansu province to “war zone” level.  The use of the term war zone appeared aimed at intimidating Taiwan.  The upgrade represented a significant increase in the level of military preparedness, according to military experts.

(c)       Opposes inclusion of Taiwan in the Missile Defence System.  China firmly opposed any move to include Taiwan into the proposed US Theatre Missile Defence (TMD) system in East Asia.  It demanded that the US uphold its commitment to the three Sino-US joint communiques.

(d)       Warns US Congress.

(i)        China has warned that the US should desist from making a legislative measure on Taiwan a full-fledged law.  China has taken strong exception to the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act which was endorsed by the International Relations Committee of the US House of Representatives.

(ii)       The Act envisages increased military exchanges between the US and Taiwan and specifies that the US will protect Taiwan from outside coercion and force.

The Role Played by the US

17.       One China Policy.  The US recognises that there is only one-China and Taiwan is a part of China.  This is enshrined in the Shanghai Communique of 1972.  The US President, reiterated the one-China policy to his Chinese counterpart and expressed hope that both sides could maintain dialogue and resolve their differences peacefully.

18.       No Diplomatic Recognition to Taiwan.  The US has given diplomatic recognition to China and not Taiwan.  However, powerful forces in the US Congress consistently urge the President to tip the balance away from the Communist China and more toward Taiwan.

19.       Taiwan Relations Act.

(a)       The Taiwan Relations Act(TRA), commits the US to supply Taiwan with weaponry.  However, the TRA is also meant to disabuse Taiwan of any notion that unconditional US intervention is guaranteed in the event of any conflict it may have with China.

(b)       Analysts point out that this is a clever ploy by the US to deter Taiwan from possibly declaring its independence from China while, at the same time discouraging China from following its option of using military force for unification.

20.       Taiwan Security Enhancement Act.

(a)       The Taiwan Security Enhancement Act was endorsed by the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee in October 1999.

(b)       The new legislation proposes to authorise specific new co-operation between the two governments, including the sale of US Theatre Missile Defences (TMD), satelite early warning data, diesel submarines and Aim-120 air-to-air missiles.

(c)       It also bans any limits on arms sales.  However, the US has promised in a 1982 agreement with China to gradually reduce arms sales to Taiwan.  The US officials have stressed that this is unlikely unless China moves towards peaceful reconciliation with Taiwan.

Conclusion

21.       Implications of Taiwanese President’s Statement.  Taiwan’s President, Mr.Lee’s statement advocating ‘state-to-state’ relations between China and Taiwan has the following implications according to analysts.

(a)       The Taiwan problem is no longer a Sino-US one’ it will be more critically a China-Taiwan problem. It will create foreign policy and security issues for Asia.

(b)       Taiwan’s progress towards independence could set a precedent for Tibet and Xinjiang provinces which are already restive and capable of getting external support and sympathy.

22.       Strained Sino-US Relations.  The US role of guarantor of Taiwan’s security irks China, according to analysts.  The present stand-off will further complicate the already troubled Sino-US relations.

23.       Impact on the Security of the Region.

(a)       Analysts feel that the Chinese fears are focussed on the US. It has attempted to persuade the US that the two countries have shared, not competing interests in Asia and the world and they should build a co-operative relationship and structures that advance mutual security.

(b)       The main objective of China according to analysts was to prevent the return and consolidation of a hostile US military presence in Asia.  However, in the last two years, China and the US have been pulling in different directions.

(c)       Over the last five years, the US has worked to revive its security arrangements in Asia, particularly with Japan, which also has economic interests with  Taiwan .  China fears that this will affect the balance of security in the region and lead to an arms race.

19.             Political Dialogue.  Finally, analysts point out that Mr.Lee should evolve a diplomatic approach and a political package to beg

20.             In substantive negotiations with mainland China on their future relations. This, the problem can be better resolved through a political dialogue than by the use of force.