INDIA AND IT’S NEIGHBOURS

INDIA AND IT’S NEIGHBOURS

INDO-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

Introduction

1.         Fifty years after its formation, Pakistan is a country in turmoil.  All its major democratic institutions lie shattered. The economy also appears to be in deep trouble. There is large scale violence in most of the cities.  The citizens live in perpetual fear due to gross violation of human rights.

2.         The fiftieth year turned out to be one of the most turbulent year for Pakistan’s fragile democracy.  The President was stripped of his powers, being reduced to a ceremonial head, the judiciary was in total disarray and under attack from elements within and outside. Military was under threat with sacking of chiefs of Armed Forces. Provincial unrest has mounted and voice of dissidence among various provinces grew amid fears of rising dictatorial tendencies in the country’s Prime Minister.  All this turned into the fourth coup by Gen Parvez Musharraf who dismissed the Nawaz Sharrif Government on 12 Oct 1999 hours after Prime Minister sacked the Army Chief and appointed Lt Gen Khwaja Ziauddin the new chief.

Background

3.         Military Rule.  Pakistan has been ruled by the Army for 25 of the 52 years of its existence.

4.         First Coup. General Iskander Mirza overthrew an elected government in 1958. His army Chief Gen  Mohammed Ayub Khan took over within days and got elected President in 1960.

5.         Second Coup.  Gen Ayub Khan resigned in 1969 after several months of violence, rioting and unrest in the then East Pakistan. Ayub Khan handed over power to Gen Mohammed Yahya Khan, who declared martial law, in the country and let loose a reign of terror in East Pakistan.

6.         Third Coup.  Zulfikar Ali Bhutto was overthrown on 05 July 1977 by the then Army Chief Gen. Mohammed Zia-ul-haq. Bhutto was imprisoned and later executed on  04 April  1979 on charges of complicity in a 1974 political murder.

7.      Fourth coup.  Nawaz Sharrif was over thrown by Gen Parvez Musharraf on 12 Oct 99 and was awarded life imprisonment.

State of  Pakistan Before the Coup

8.         Heading towards the Status of a Failed State. According to defence analysts, Pakistan has gained notoriety as a nation practicing international terrorism, being involved in large-scale narcotics traffic, nurturing Islamic extremism and heading towards the status of a “failed state”.

9.         Cannot be neglected by the International Community.  Analysts feel that the International community for the following reasons cannot neglect Pakistan.

(a)              Its geographical location.

(b)              Its acquisition of nuclear weapons.

(c)              Its terrorist potential.

10.       Quest for Nuclear Weapons.  Pakistan’s quest for nuclear weapons was not only India specific but was also related to its desire to protect itself from external intervention in its domestic politics.     

 11.      Threat to International Peace and Security.  Analysts feel that Pakistan poses a threat to international peace and security because of its geographical location. Extremists trained in Pakistan have been active in Algeria, Bosnia, Chechnya, Ngorno Karabakh, Tadjikistan and other Central Asian States. They are also responsible for terrorism in Kashmir resulting  in the death of 18,000 people.

12.       Unstable Democratic Governance.

(a)       Within Pakistan there has been unstable democratic governance.

(b)       The civilian leaders have not strengthened the democratic institutions by weakening the hold of the army.  They have only paid lip-service to democracy and used the democratic institutions for narrow financial and political gains, according to analysts.

(c)        Since its inception, Pakistan has failed to evolve institutional and political processes that could acquire the necessary momentum and autonomy to form the base for a democratic state structure.

(d)       The rise of extremist forces, a result of state-backing, and Pakistan’s disastrous policy on Afghanistan are a direct result of a failed democracy.

Fourth Army Coup in Pakistan

13.       Dismissal of Nawaz Sharif Government.  On October 12, 1999, the Nawaz Sharif Government was dismissed by the Army top brass hours after the Prime Minister sacked the Army Chief, General Parvez Musharraf and appointed Lt Gen Khwaja Ziauddin the new Chief.

14.       Military Rule.

(a)       The Pakistani Army Chief, General Parvez Musharraf, appointed himself the Chief Executive of Pakistan in a proclamation imposing a state of Emergency in the country.

(b)       The constitution shall remain in abeyance.

(c)       The President of Pakistan shall continue in office but will act only under the orders of the Chief Executive.

(d)       The National Assembly, Provincial assemblies and Senate shall stand suspended.

(e)       The whole of Pakistan will come under the control of the armed forces.

(f)        The courts have been barred from issuing any order against the Chief Executive and any person exercising his powers.

(g)       Gen Musharraf emphasised that top priority will be given to economic revival, national integration and good governance.

15.       National Security Council.

(a)       A six member National Security Council (NSC) was set up by Gen. Musharraf to help him in governing the country. A think-tank of experts was to be formed as an “adjunct” to the NSC to provide institutionalised advice and input.

(b)       The functions of the NSC will be to deliberate upon, discuss and tender advice on all national matters ranging from security to foreign affairs to law and order, economics, human rights, rights of minorities, women development and country’s Islamic ideology.

16.       Cabinet of Ministers. A cabinet of Ministers would work under the guidance of the NSC. The former Foreign Secretary and High Commissioner to India, Mr.Abdus Sattar, has been appointed the Foreign Minister and Mr.Shaukat Aziz has been appointed the new Finance Minister.

17        No Time-Frame for the Return of Democracy. Gen. Musharraf has refused to give any commitment on a time frame for return to democracy.

18.             Arrest of Mr.Nawaz Sharif. The deposed Prime Minister, Mr Nawaz Sharif Karachi on November19, 1999. Mr.Sharif and four others have been charged with hijacking, high treason, attempt to murder and conspiracy for preventing an aircraft carrying the military ruler , Gen Musharraf and 200 others from landing in Karachi on October 12, 1999. Mr Sharif was finally awarded life imprisonment.

Factors Leading to the Coup

19.       Dictatorial Attitude of Nawaz Sharif.    Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif had weakened the Supreme Court, stripped the President of the power to dismiss him and intimidated the opposition and the press, according to analysts.

20.                 Weakened Economy. Pakistan’s economy is on the verge of collaps and    Mr. Sharif  had lost popular support.

21.       Kargil.  The Kargil misadventure was seen as a strategic disaster.  Fissures between Mr. Sharif and Gen Musharraf originating the Kargil fiasco  increased after the withdrawal of the army from Kargil under US pressure.  Gen.  Musharraf was not reconciled to the government’s decision to withdraw from Kargil. 

22.       Friction with the Army.     Mr. Sharif forced the resignation of the then army chief Gen Jehangir Karamat.  He interfered in appointments and angered the Army by blaming it for Kargil fiasco and alienated the Navy Chief who resigned later.  The sacking of the Army Chief was the last straw.

23.       Poor Tactical Senses of Nawaz Sharif.  Analysts point out that Mr. Sharif took on the Army Chief at a time when his own popularity was at the rock bottom having alienated all other branches of the state. Publicly, the Army was perceived as the oluy check on him.

Reasons Behind Pakistan Reverting to Military Rule

24.       Role of Pakistan’s Army.

(a)       Supra-Governmental. Army in Pakistan has incrementally acquired an institutional identity and role which is supra-governmental and transcends all other constitutional and institutional arrangements of governance in P&akistan.

(b)       Ideological Guardian. The Army has designated itself as the protector of the ideology of Pakistan and the guardian of national values. It has bestowed upon itself the right to intervene even against the constitution of the republic according to analysts.

(c)       Higher Responsibility than Civilian Governments. The Pakistan Army has claimed for itself a responsibility higher than of any civilian Government regardless of the processes by which such Governments come to power.

(d)       India as an Enemy.  Defence analysts point out that the Pakistan Army needs India as an enemy to enable it to play the role of an ideological guardian. Therefore it is not in the interest of the army to have good relations with India. This led to the Kargil misadventure and the logical consequence of Kargil is the fourth spell of Army rule.

(e)       Hold Over Foreign Policy. The Pakistan Army had always controlled the foreign policy of the country despite the civilian rule, according to analysts. The civilian Governments has to toe the Army’s line on foreign policy.

(f)        External Factors.

(i)        The significant influence of the Army in Pakistan is also a reflection of the external factors, according to analysts. The three wars with India and the continuing tensions in relations between the two countries have given a central role to the Army in Pakistan.

(ii)       The civil war in Afghanistan has also strengthened the Army’s role in Pakistan.

(g)       Legitimacy of Military Coups. Analysts point out that the Army in Pakistan is willing to tamper with the nation in its determination to preserve itself. Therefore coups are considered perfectly legitimate by the Pakistani Army .

25.       Fragility of Democracy in Pakistan.

(a)       The military coups in Pakistan underline the fragility of democratic institutions in that country, according to analysts.

(b)       Ideological, Internal and External Factors. Analysts feel that the failure of democracy to gain firm foothold in Pakistan can be interpreted in terms of ideological, external and internal considerations.

(c)       Lack of Strong Tradition of Nationhood. The weakness of democratic institutions in Pakistan is partly due to the lack of sufficiently strong tradition of nationhood, according to analysts. It is pointed out that Pakistan was founded largely on the anti-India factor. This factor could not provide the right setting for the democratic spirit to floursih, according to analysts.

(d)              Mismanagement by Civilian Governments. Finally, the failure of politicians to provide stable governments has also been a major factor behind the facade of military rule in Pakistan. The situation has been further aggravated by the corruption and mismanagement of civilian regimes and the provincial divide in the country.

Fallout of the Military Coup in Pakistan

26.      Effect on Pakistan’s Economy. Analysts feel that Pakistan faces the risk of losing billions of dollars in much needed foreign loans. The military coup threatened to alienate investors and western governments.

27.       Nuclear Weapons.

(a)       The main reason for global concern about the military coup in Pakistan is because the country now possesses nuclear weapons. The perception is that nuclear weapons are more dangerous in the hands of the army than in the hands of a civilian government.

(b)       Analysts feel that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons programme has been in the hands of the army for the past 22 years. The military coup has not brought about any material change in regard to the command and control of nuclear weapons in that country.

(c)              However, the international community is worried that the army may want to sell nuclear technology to other Islamic countries in return for aid.

28        South Asia. Analysts feel that for South Asia the main fallout of the coup  in Pakistan is that it will indefinitely set back hopes for a peace process between India and Pakistan. This will also have a negative impact on the development of trade in the region.

29.             Fundamentalist Path. Analysts feel that the military coup in Pakistan may encourage the extremist elements there to step up cross-border terrorism in India. It also pointed out that if Pakistan is isolated and pressured the country may go further down the fundamentalist path and Talibanise institutions.

Conclusion

30.     Acceptance of the fourth coup and absence of any serious protests rather expression of relief from an authoritarian rule brings out two key factors.

(a)       After a decade of civilian rule the democracy still remains weak in Pakistan. Corrupt civilian leaders have discredited the democracy and people therefore prefer military rule  to a civilian rule.

(b)       Confidence in Army as an in