AFGHANISTAN

AFGHANISTAN

Background

1.         1973.  Afganistan King Zahir Shah overthrown by his cousin Mohammed Daoud in a coup. The coup set in motion the events which culminated in the revolution of communist army officers in 1978.

2.         1979.  The Soviets moved into Afganistan.

3.         1985-86.   The Soviet Army of 100,000 soldiers failed to subdue the Mujahiden factions that received US arms.  Najibullah was installed by the Soviet Union.

4.         1989.  The Soviets had to withdraw under intense pressure and resistance by the Afgan Mujahideen.

5.         1992.  The pro-Soviet Government of Najibullah fell in 1992.  The Mujahideen factions seized Kabul but started fighting among themselves.

6.         1994.  The UN withdrew from Afganistan on grounds of security.  Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, leader of the Hezb-e-Islami faction launched an attack to oust interim President Burhanuddin Rabbani.  Since the Mujahideen took control of Afganistan in 1992, there has been anarchy in many parts of the country.

7.         1994-96.  The Taliban Militia backed by Pakistan entered the fray, swiftly capturing the  southern province of Kandahar. Taliban later captured many parts of the southern, western and eastern Afganistan.

8.         Shura.  The six-men Council (shura) was consittuted by the Taliban’s supreme leader Mullah Mohammed Omar.  The Shura is headed by Mullah Mohhmmed Rabbani.

9.         Najibullah Executed.  The Taliban followers captured and executed the former communist President Najibullah, who had been given shelter on the premises of the UN office in Kabul when he was overthrown in 1992.

Rise of the Taliban

10.       The Taliban is a non-Mujahideen Pushtoon dominated force which came into being from 1994-95.  Despite denials by both Pakistan and US, it is suspected that Pakistan has blessed and fostered the Taliban with strategic help from the US.

11.       The Taliban is a ‘Sunni Fundamentalist organisation’ headed by Mullah Mohammad Omar who was educated in one of the religious schools run in Pakistan by the Jamiat-e-Islam (JUI).  He participated in the Jihad (holy war) fought by the Afgans in 1980s against the Soviet occupation as a member of the Karkat-e-Inquilab-e-Islami (HII) or Movement of Islamic Revolution.

12.       In 1994, Mullah Omar organised the students of his religious school to resist the excesses of the commanders and  this grew into the Taliban movement.  Taliban in the local language means ‘students’.

13.       The Taliban became popular among the people of Afganistan with their ways of dealing with warlords.  The peoples support helped Taliban to capture 17 provinces of Afganistan without much resistance in less than two years.  Mullah Omar is uncompromising on Islamic matters and so is the Taliban movement.

UN’s  Role

14.       The Security Council issued a statement appealing to the foreign powers backing the various factions with military and cash assistance not to do so.

15.       The council expressed concern at the increasingly ethnic nature of the conflict.  This posed a threat to the unity of the Afganistan State.  The conflict was a serious threat to the regional and international peace and security.

16.       The Security Council deplored the breakdown of the inter-Afgan talks and asked all parties to return to the  conference table in order to reach a political settlement of the conflict to which there was no military solution.

17.       As a prelude to direct talks, it asked all warring factions to halt fighting, agree to a ceasefire and lift all restrictions to reaching humaritarian supplies wherever they are needed.

18.       Finally, the Council emphasised that it remained concerned at the continuing discrimination against girls and women and other violations of human rights in Afganistan.

India’s Policy of Afganistan

19.       India has assured that it has legitimate security interest in Afganistan and role in Afganistan cannot be ignored.

20.       India has figured prominently in the UN plans for Afghanistan.  In November 1997, the UN special envoy had come to India for serious consultations with the Indian leaders.

21.       India and Russia signed a common programme to deal with the Afghan crisis during Putin’s visit to India.

Need  for India to Play an Active Role in the Resolution of the  Afganistan Conflict

23.       India needs to play an active role in seeking  an early resolution of the Afganistan conflict since its continuance has adverse security implications for India and the development of trade and economic co-operation with countries in the region, according to the BJP manifesto.

24.       Defence experts feel that if Afganistan is allowed to go the Pakistan way with State-sponsored terrorism and a mediaeval brand of Islam, it will have an adverse impact on Kashmir and the secular fabric of India.

25.       Security Concerns.

(a)       The Taliban may indulge in terrorism, drug trafficking and Islamic fundamentalism.

(b)       Pakistan can use the Taliban to wage its proxy war in Kashmir.  This threat is justified from the reports of terrorist training camps opened by the Taliban,

(c)       The Taliban presence in Kabul also threaten to provide greater strategic depth to Pakistan agains India in future war.

(d)       India’s role in promoting ethnic reconciliation in Afganistan will be important for its own security in the long term.

26.       Finally, a peaceful and stable Afganistan will benefit India in the political and economic sense.  It will strengthen India’s security and give access to Central Asia.

Peace Moves in Afganistan

27.       On March 14, 1999, Afganistan’s warring parties agreed at UN-mediated talks in Turkmenistan capital Ashgabat to form a government of unity, exchange prisoners of war and continue effort to end years of bloody conflict.  The dominant Taliban militia controls about 80 percent of the country, while northern alliance controls the rest.

28.       Shaky Agreement.

(a)       Both sides agreed to replace 20 prisoners each as soon as possible through ICRC.

(b)       Both sides agreed to form a shared executive, legislative and judiciary.

(c)       Sharing of power meant that Taliban had met the opposition demand thus there was some optimism.

(d)       Choice Turkmenistan’s Capital, meant finding of a neutral ground.

(e)       No details of how the power sharing would work but seem to have been discussed.

(f)        Taliban unlikely to concede to half the government posts to be given to the Tajiks, Hazaras and other ministers as Taliban constitute two fifths of the population and have traditionally ruled Afganistan.  They are unlikely to dilute their purist interpretation of Islamic law.

29.       World View on Peace in Afganistan.

(a)       American want Taliban to hand over Osama Bin Laden.  Presently Talibans have refused to surrender Bin Laden but have tried to distance themselves from him.

(b)       British and Americans envoys met in Feb and promised them of a possible recognisition of Taliban-led, but  broad based government, if their concerns were met.

(c)       Russia and Iran both backers of opposition are keen to see a settlement.

(d)       Russia fears the spread of Taliban-style Islamic fundamentalism into central Asia, it worries about cost of financing Mr Masood. Its economy is in a poor way, and it reckons a settlement in Afganistan would be cheaper and more permanent means of countering the perceived threat than sponsoring an endless war.

(e)       As far Iran, a settlement would enable it to send home 1.5 m Afgan refugees, as well as reducing its military counter-narcotic budgets.

30.       Comments.

(a)       Peace aggrements to Afganistan come like winters and followed by military offensive.

(b)       However, the Taliban movement is feeling the pressure of international isolation and continuing the civil war.

(c)       Talibans have been unable to recruit sufficient troops from pashtoon village that they rely on. Funds, fuel and weapons from Saudi Arabia have dried up because of the groups refusal to expel Osman Bin Laden.

(d)       Pak military support has slackened due to recession   as well as pressure from UN.

(e)       Northern alliance is also fragmented and trying to rebuild its political cohesion and military action.